Inventory Grows for Sixth Straight Month While Sales Decline
The number of homes on the market grew month over month for a sixth consecutive month in September as sales declined 13.8% from August and 17.0% from a year ago. The 9.3% increase in inventory was the largest month-over-month increase in 14 months. Even so, inventory is 8.6% below September 2022 levels.
Despite the growth in inventory over August 2023, new listings were down 1.8% from August and 7.8% year over year.
With three months left in 2023, the Median Sales Price of $415,000 posted a seasonal decline of 2.4% month over month – last September’s sequential drop was 1.2% – but remained 2.5% higher than last September’s $405,000.
“We’re seeing some seasonal trends in play,” says RE/MAX President and CEO Nick Bailey. “The dip in sales followed typical seasonality, and the increase in inventory on the market was much needed to balance previous low inventory. And that’s good news for buyers who choose to enter the market this fall.”
Meghan Carroll, a real estate agent with RE/MAX Elite in Monmouth Beach, NJ says it can be a tough market for some buyers. “Higher interest rates have deterred some buyers but not all, which has surprised me somewhat, but those buyers are looking at the long-term picture. Inventory levels are also still low, which is keeping the prices higher and making bidding wars commonplace here. So, it can be tough out there for some buyers – especially young, first-time buyers.”
Other notable metrics:
• Homes sold for an average of 99% of the listing price in September, the same as in both August and in September 2022.
• Months’ supply of inventory in September was 2.1, larger than both August’s 1.7 and September 2022’s 2.0.
• Homes sold in September were on the market an average of 35 days, one day longer than in August or in September of last year.
Highlights and local market metrics for September include:
New Listings
Of the 50 metro areas surveyed in September 2023, the number of newly listed homes is down 1.8% compared to August 2023, and down 7.8% compared to September 2022. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year new listings percentage were Las Vegas, NV at -23.1%, Detroit, MI at -20.8%, and San Diego, CA at -20.3%. The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in new listings percentage were San Francisco, CA at +16.2%, Tampa, FL at +15.8%, and San Antonio, TX at +14.9%.
Closed Transactions
Of the 50 metro areas surveyed in September 2023, the overall number of home sales is down 13.8% compared to August 2023, and down 17.0% compared to September 2022. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year sales percentage were Trenton, NJ at -29.9%, Manchester, NH at -29.3%, and Dover, DE at -28.6%. Only one market had an increase in year-over-year sales percentage, Tampa, FL at +11.7%.
Median Sales Price – Median of 50 metro area prices
In September 2023, the median of all 50 metro area sales prices was $415,000, down 2.4% compared to August 2023, and up 2.5% from September 2022. The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price were Manchester, NH at +11.7%, Wichita, KS at +11.6%, and Hartford, CT at +9.8%. The markets with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Houston, TX at -2.5%, followed by a tie between Las Vegas, NV and Phoenix, AZ at -1.9%.
Close-to-List Price Ratio – Average of 50 metro area prices
In September 2023, the average close-to-list price ratio of all 50 metro areas in the report was 99%, flat compared to both August 2023 and September 2022. The close-to-list price ratio is calculated by the average value of the sales price divided by the list price for each transaction. When the number is above 100%, the home closed for more than the list price. If it’s less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price. The highest close-to-list price ratios were a tie between Hartford, CT and Trenton, NJ at 104%, followed by San Francisco, CA at 103%. The metro areas with the lowest close-to-list price ratio were Miami, FL at 95% and Coeur d’Alene, ID at 96%.
Days on Market – Average of 50 metro areas
The average days on market for homes sold in September 2023 was 35, up one day compared to the average in both August 2023 and September 2022. The metro areas with the lowest days on market were Baltimore, MD at 12, followed by a tie between Dover, DE and Trenton, NJ at 13. The highest days on market averages were in Fayetteville, AR at 71, Coeur d’Alene, ID at 69, and San Antonio, TX at 64. Days on market is the number of days between when a home is first listed in an MLS and a sales contract is signed.
Months’ Supply of Inventory – Average of 50 metro areas
The number of homes for sale in September 2023 was up 9.3% from August 2023 and down 8.6% from September 2022. Based on the rate of home sales in September 2023, the months’ supply of inventory was 2.1, up compared 1.7 in August 2023, and increased compared to 2.0 in September 2022. In September 2023, the markets with the lowest months’ supply of inventory were a tie between Hartford, CT and Trenton, NJ at 0.9. The markets with the highest months’ supply of inventory were Bozeman, MT at 5.1, San Antonio, TX at 4.6, and Houston, TX at 3.9.
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Report Details
The RE/MAX National Housing Report is distributed monthly on or about the 15th. The Report is based on MLS data for the stated month in 50 metropolitan areas, includes single-family residential property types, and is not annualized. For maximum representation, most of the largest metro areas in the country are represented, and an attempt is made to include at least one metro area in almost every state. Metro areas are defined by the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) established by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.
Definitions
Closed Transactions are the total number of closed residential transactions during the given month. Months Supply of Inventory is the total number of residential properties listed for sale at the end of the month (current inventory) divided by the number of sales contracts signed (pending listings) during the month. Where “pending” data is unavailable, an inferred pending status is calculated using closed transactions. Days on Market is the average number of days that pass from the time a property is listed until the property goes under contract. Median Sales Price for a metro area is the median sales price for closed transactions in that metro area. The nationwide Median Sales Price is calculated at the nationwide aggregate level using all sale prices from the included metro areas. The Close-to-List Price Ratio is the average value of the sales price divided by the list price for each closed transaction.
MLS data is provided by Seventy3, LLC, a RE/MAX Holdings company. While MLS data is believed to be reliable, it cannot be guaranteed. MLS data is constantly being updated, making any analysis a snapshot at a particular time. Every month, the previous period’s data is updated to ensure accuracy over time. Raw data remains the intellectual property of each local MLS organization.
